07:43
Ulama
[The original article may be
viewed at: http://blogs.aljazeera.com/blog/asia/winners-and-losers-myanmar-violence]
Wayne Hay is a roving correspondent
covering the Asia-Pacific region.
November 5, 2012 - 09:20
The
lack of transparency, justice and clear policy is fuelling the violence and
tension in Rakhine state, and providing plenty of room for speculation around
Myanmar about the reasons for the fighting between Rohingya Muslims and Rakhine
Buddhists.
We
know that three Rohingya men were arrested and convicted for the rape and
murder of a Buddhist girl at the end of May. We know that 10 Rohingya men were
butchered five days later in an apparent revenge attack by Buddhists.
No
one has been arrested for those killings and what has followed is a series of
violent events which has seen more people killed, thousands of houses and other
buildings burned down and around 100,000 people left homeless.
The
government response has been weak, providing ammunition to those who believe
elements within the political system are complicit in the crisis. Let's face
it: If the power brokers in the country really wanted to stop the conflict from
the very start, they could have.
It
wasn't that long ago that the former military regime was brutally cracking down
on any sort of overt dissent and, even though there is now a partially civilian
government in charge, many of the same people are still running the country.
Political
undertones
The
government could have, as it has in the past, filled the streets of
Rakhine state with soldiers in an instant. It says it has increased security
around the region, but the visible presence of soldiers is minimal.
There
are political undertones to the situation that tend to indicate it's more than
simply communal tension boiling over.
It's
easy to forget under this new dawn in Myanmar that there are still hardliners
within the system, including the military, who are seeing their power and
influence eroded by this thing called democracy.
They
would argue that the armed forces are the only people who can keep the peace in
Myanmar and a perfect way to prove that would be to, not necessarily start a conflict,
but to not stop it, and possibly even encourage it to grow into something much
larger than it should have.
Connected
with the army is the country's largest political party, the Union Solidarity
and Development Party, whose leadership is made up entirely of former army
generals, including some hardliners.
The
USDP has a huge problem on its hands called the National League for Democracy,
the opposition party led by Aung San Suu Kyi.
The
NLD is extremely popular and proved that by winning the 1990 election in a
landslide only to be prevented from taking over the country by the military. It
then won most seats in the by-election in April signalling that the USDP is in
trouble ahead of the next general election in 2015, if a free and fair vote is
held.
Speculation
rife
The
above mentioned may seem completely irrelevant to the ongoing tensions in
Rakhine but on social media in Myanmar, speculation has been rife since early
June that some people maybe seizing upon the violence to strengthen their
positions and perhaps reclaim what they once had.
Key
to that speculation was a mysterious meeting between top USDP official and
former general Aung Thaung and a young Buddhist monk, known for his anti-Muslim
stance.
Wirathu
spent more than 10 years in jail for his involvement in clashes between
Buddhists and Muslims in 2001 in the city of Mandalay. He was released late
last year as part of the new government's round of amnesties.
Then,
after the April by-election in which the USDP suffered an embarassing setback,
Wirathu received a visit from Aung Thaung, a man known to be close to former
dictator Than Shwe.
Photos
emerged of what was a highly unusual meeting between a leader of the country's
ruling political party and an ordinary monk, famous only for his anti-Muslim
sentiment.
So
why did they meet No explanation has been forthcoming but after the violence
started in Rakhine, Wirathu was again at the forefront of rallies by monks who
took to the streets in support of the President Thein Sein's statement that
those in the Rohingya community who are not legal citizens of Myanmar should be
detained and then sent to another country.
What
does the USDP have to gain from the fighting in the west
Maybe
hardliners would say the unrest proves that Myanmar is not ready for too much
political change at once.
Maybe
they would say Myanmar needs the "steady" hand of people who have
experience in running the country, and not someone who has plenty of experience
as an activist, but little experience as a politician.
Suu
Kyi in dilemma
The
fighting also puts Aung San Suu Kyi in a very difficult position. She's long
campaigned for human rights, the rule of law and justice. Now she's working
within the system as a member of parliament and the world expects her to
continue to do those things, particularly when hundreds of thousands of people
in her own country are being increasingly marginalised.
Her
response has verged on non-existent. She's made a few weak statements such as
saying she won't use "moral leadership" to back either side.
Those
old hands within the USDP and the army who are resistant to change will be
enjoying watching how the NLD leader handles the situation.
They
know she'll be coming under pressure from foreign governments and human rights
organisations to say more in support of the Rohingya, but at the same time she
knows that if she criticises the Rakhine Buddhists, she risks losing a lot of
domestic support in a country where the Rohingya are largely seen as illegal
immigrants.
Losing
that support, means losing votes. Maybe she's beginning to learn what life is
like as a politician in a country still fresh from being a military
dictatorship, instead of being a democracy campaigner.
We
will perhaps never know the truth behind the fighting in Rakhine but what we do
know is that the residents of that part of the country, Muslim and Buddhist,
are the losers and the international community is hopefully learning that these
are still very early days in "democratic" Myanmar and forces
resistant to change can still play a big role in determining the country's
future.
